Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Social Sciences Academic Press published on the 18th "World Economic Paper: 2018 World Economic Situation Analysis and Forecast" predicts that the global economic growth rate by PPP in 2018 will be about 3.5% Market exchange rate of growth rate of about 2.9%. This forecast is lower than the International Monetary Fund's forecast of other international organizations.
In the analysis of the Yellow Book, the lower forecasts mainly reflect concerns about the unstable foundation of the world economy, the asset price bubble, the high level of global debt, the trend of anti-globalization, the U.S. policy adjustment, the Brexit process in the United Kingdom and geopolitical conflicts. .
The change book pointed out that in 2017, the world economic growth markedly improved, the labor market continued to improve, the world's commodity prices increased moderately, the prices of bulk commodities increased and the growth rate of international trade increased. At the same time, the slow growth of international direct investment, the continued accumulation of global debts and the emergence of a bubble in financial markets.
The Yellow Paper also predicts that by 2018 commodity prices will remain at low and medium levels, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $ 60 a barrel.
In addition, starting from 2017, the global trade situation is better than in previous years. In September 2017, the WTO forecast the growth rate of global trade in goods by 2018 to 1.4% -4.4%, which is larger than the 2017 forecast and reflects the uncertainty in global economic and trade growth.
However, the Yellow Book argues that the current Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hike, tightened fiscal policy and increased trade restrictions will restrain the growth of global trade over the next two years. It is estimated that the growth rate of global trade in goods by 2018 will be around 3.0%.
