Spring Festival is approaching, this should be a joyous old-fashioned, happy new year, but the recent trend galvanized plate does not make people worry. The price of galvanized coil hit an Rmb5206 / tonne high in 2017 on Dec. 18 from the start of December due to the rising price of thread and hot coil. Then the callback mode was opened. As of January 23, the absolute price of galvanized steel Reported 5051 yuan / ton, the highest point down 155 yuan / ton, the callback is the most direct callback Spring Festival approaching, increasingly weaker downstream demand. On the recent situation, the price of galvanized can be said that the resignation of the old shock in the shock, then the stability can meet the New Year, I elaborate from the following aspects:
First, the raw material production is good
As of January 19 hot-rolled capacity utilization was 82.51%, and after 18 years into the capacity utilization showed a linear upward trend. Compared with the volume production capacity utilization in the recent three years, the volume dropped slightly by 3.86% year-on-year in 17 years and 3.96% in 16 years. Overall, it belongs to the middle level in the recent three years. At the same time, it is learned that the batch overhaul of hot coil production line has basically been completed in the last month. There is no plan to extensive overhaul in the short term, so hot coil capacity utilization rate can be short-term The adjustment will be narrowed, and the follow-up supply will remain at a relatively adequate level.
Second, raw material stocks gradually picked up
From the inventory data, since 2018 the total inventory of the national thermal coil to maintain sustained growth, but the overall inventory remained the lowest in nearly three years, compared with 1727 year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, compared with 16 years year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. However, from the historical data in the figure, it can be seen that in the 16th and 17th years, stocks increased linearly during the Spring Festival. According to statistics, the hot-rolled steel mills in January orders basically completed, February orders have also been set at 40%, combined with the above hot-rolled capacity utilization to consider the situation, hot-rolled steel mills will maintain a higher production Positivity. On the other hand, February coincided with the Spring Festival in 18, when the terminal demand will be at a standstill, the stock digestion rate down to freezing point, the history of inventory accumulation line will repeat itself, given the current capacity utilization between 16 years and 17 years, the total inventory is also expected to exceed the 16-year level, but slightly lower with the same period of 17 years.
Third, the finished product price trend is weak
Galvanized absolute price index point of view, in January 18 galvanized the overall weakening of the main shock. Since January 4, 5169 yuan / ton has gradually slipped to January 5 of 5051 yuan / ton, the overall decline of 118 yuan / ton. From all over the market performance, the demand will remain weak trend years ago, the price will form a certain suppression. However, between the recent relatively strong raw material prices, and the current price of galvanized steel is similar to the same period of 17 years. Coupled with the shifting of business focus to the receiving terminal, the willingness to lower prices is expected to narrow gradually in the short term.
Fourth, capacity utilization or repeat history
First of all, for the 17-year galvanized capacity utilization situation, there is a clear decline at the end of January. Mainly because of the approaching year of the year, the shutdown of most private-owned enterprises took place and the production was gradually resumed after the year. As a result, the capacity utilization rate was restored to its normal level. 18 years of situation, the current capacity utilization rate at 17 years compared to the weak level, while at the same time with the same period of 17 years, private steel mills will also appear before the Spring Festival suspension stoppage situation, as I understand the basic point in time on February 10 By the close of the day, the dramatic drop in galvanized capacity utilization is bound to be similar to the 17-year situation. On the other hand, the author understands that as the Spring Festival time is mid-February this year, the time is rather special, and the downtime of private steel mills may increase slightly. The capacity utilization rate is at a low level or increased from 17 years ago, cut back.
Fifth, inventory growth and pressure is limited
Galvanized sheet volume inventory, 18-year galvanized inventory increased significantly over 17 years, an increase of 147,800 tons, an increase of up to 11.12%. It is not difficult to see from the chart that in the 17-year galvanized inventory, the inventory still maintained its growth at the turn of the year. Given that the current capacity utilization rate is slightly lower than the same period of 17 years and the low utilization rate of capacity utilization during the Spring Festival is longer than that of the previous year, the output is expected to have Decline, the speed of stock accumulation slowed down slightly, year after stock or only slightly above the 17-year level.
To sum up
From the raw material side of the situation, the hot coil capacity utilization and inventory conditions have maintained an upward trend before the Spring Festival, we can see the supply side of galvanized coil raw material supply will remain relatively abundant situation. However, raw material inventories below the level of the same period of last year will also provide some support to the price. The expectation of continuing to bearish raw materials will be weakened.
From the finished product galvanized sheet volume point of view, the current price and similar over the same period in 17 years, coupled with the market significantly reduced the price of enthusiasm decreased significantly. At the same time, the capacity utilization rate slightly weakened compared to the same period of last year, and the downtime of private steel mills or longer than the same period of 17 years led to the prolongation of low production running hours. At that time, the increase in inventories will be narrowed, showing a limited increase in inventory over 17 years. limited. Coupled with the focus of the market transferred from the shipping end of the terminal, the enthusiasm for price adjustment dropped significantly. Therefore, I believe that the price of galvanized coil volume before the Spring Festival turmoil will continue to narrow slightly until gradually stabilize to greet the New Year.
