According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, since November, the steel factory repair thread production line has occurred a total of 29 times, the cumulative impact increased by 170,000 tons, of which the East China and Northwest maintenance steel mills have more impact, an increase of 64,600 tons and 5.08 million respectively. Tons of maintenance impact. The total output of resumption of production increased by about 40,000 tons, mainly in East China. Steel mills increased the maintenance of thread production line in winter, and the environmental protection and production winds started again. ? We can make a brief analysis from three aspects: cost profit, market mentality and environmental protection.
First, the fall in steel prices led to a sharp narrowing of steel mill profits and a significant drop in costs. In November, steel prices fell sharply from 4,728 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4,006 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 722 yuan/ton, while raw material prices fell relatively little. Steel mill profits fell from a high of 1,000 yuan to 500 yuan. /Ton. Some steel mills suffered losses, and the billet rolling enterprises and electric furnace steel mills began to stop production.
From the perspective of the daily cost of steel mills monitored, the profit of blast furnace thread fell from 1,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of November to 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, while the cost of steel mills only dropped by 100 yuan/ton during this period, since December. Although the profit of steel mills has rebounded, some steel mills are still on the verge of loss. Therefore, the steel mill's cost profit has been greatly reduced, which has led to a decline in the production enthusiasm of steel mills. Maintenance and even shutdown have become the first choice of manufacturers.
Secondly, the demand is weak, the winter storage intention is low, and the market mentality recovery is still waiting. In the winter, there are widespread freezing and rainy weather in the north, and the downstream construction is worse. The demand in the northeast region is basically stagnant, or only the northern outlet of Beisu South is left. In North China and other places, large-scale snowfall is ushered in December, and the situation in East China is also Not good, only South China and Southwest China are struggling to support, and downstream demand is expected to drop to the lowest in the next two months. This year, the overall increase in steel prices is relatively large, and the traders' winter storage intentions are more cautious, especially in the case of weaker expectations of the market outlook. In the absence of a significant reduction in steel mill production or a sharp drop in steel prices, market confidence is higher. Hard to recover.
In addition, environmental protection and production limits are still the main theme of steel price shocks, and both supply and demand will continue. Recently, due to the intensified environmental pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the environmental protection and production-restriction policies and news have re-emerged, and the supply of bullish influence has appeared. However, the steel mills in Tangshan have lower thread production, and the overall operating rate is only about 58.5%. The actual impact of environmental protection and production on thread production limited. The price of steel rose, especially the futures price. On the one hand, it was driven by the speculation of funds, on the other hand, the market sentiment was slightly panic, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals remained basically unchanged.
On the whole, the “one factory, one policy” environmental protection production plan has limited impact on the later thread production, and the steel factory production line maintenance or the impact on production is more real. The future steel price rise and fall should pay more attention to the change of demand, the current The weak pattern of supply and demand determines the trend of weak and volatile steel prices.
