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Oct 11, 2016

Steel Hit The Market Again

First, one of the reasons for rising: environmental protection makes the frequency furnace steel mills have been discontinued


Analysis: First of all, the environmental investigation team surveyed in Shandong, the major intermediate frequency furnace steel mills are mainly concentrated in Texas, Binzhou and Liaocheng, since the date of the message issued, the three major intermediate frequency furnace steel mills are basically discontinued, but But also in the last month of things, when the impact on the market is still relatively large, but has passed at least 10 days, we will not talk about these discontinued intermediate frequency furnace steel production capacity, from the market impact, the National Day Shandong market prices during the festival not only did not rise for this reason, but also slightly down a little.


After the holiday, the author investigated the location of the survey and did not imagine so much, it is only one or two Texas steel mills have been affected, Binzhou, Liaocheng most of the IF furnace steel production and has not been greatly affected, Moreover, even if Texas is still part of the steel mills inventory, the holiday season did not stop shipping, so the price rise to this point as the starting point, I believe that does not hold.


Second, the reasons for the rise of the two: the current billet, transport, coal costs are high, steel mills have no profit margins


Analysis: The last sentence, "steel has no profit margins," this statement is itself a false proposition, according to the author learned that the leading steel mills in Shandong Province, which is not active mills overhaul, and some also full load, then The problem has come, there is no profit margins of steel mills why it is still at full capacity to produce it? This we do not go into details.


Again, look at the previous sentence, the first high for the first, billet costs at a high level, the industry knows that the blast furnace steel mills can generally produce their own Pizi, only some intermediate frequency furnace, converter, furnace will go to small steel procurement Billets, and this claim billet costs are high in the steel mills are all blast furnace steel, their ability to produce billet, and they are mainly to purchase ore-based, so this argument is not established. The second issue of transport costs, the problem is the largest steel mill said the problem, but the problem with the steel mills and not much relationship, why say so? First of all steel as a producer, it is only responsible for producing the product and then Sold out, as the merchant shipped out of the product, whether it is transported to the market to do flow or directly to the downstream project, the cost is borne by the business or engineering side, and since the introduction of the New Deal since the transport, the province also from the original region Single steam transport mode into fire and fire steam transport mode of transport, the author has done a survey, by changing the mode of transport, transportation costs and no significant increase, so the steel side as a reason to pull up the price as a reason Or the need for research. The third coke cost is high, the reason from last month began to say, but a month down, with the ore prices lower, coal prices have not been rising, but smooth operation. On the whole, the above reasons simply do not hold water.


Third, the reasons for the rise of three: Shandong small factory price around the pull up, tomorrow will open the steelmaking coordination meeting pulled up


Analysis: In fact, when you see this reason when I think, when the market price has been determined by the ups and downs of small factories, the first day of work yesterday, the province pulled up part of the price of steel, but some markets not only with the contrary Slightly lower, indicating that the market price is not determined by the steel up and down.


Again, look at the back of the sentence, in fact, since this year's steel mills will also be less coordination? Every time the market price in a dilemma, the steel pull up the price shot in the digestion of the market after almost the same market demand Falling into the lows, the price fell back to low, the up a fall in fact, the biggest profit is actually everyone who is clear. But this behavior just like a heart attack, like playing a hit twice, the number will be no more use.


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