Today, the black system set off a crazy daily limit. As of the close of the domestic futures market on May 10, iron ore, glass, coking coal, rebar, hot coil and other varieties have daily limit; Shanghai Aluminum's main contract futures exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton, a new high since 2008. Among them, the domestic iron ore main contract closed the daily limit strongly in early trading, with the highest price reaching 1326 yuan/ton, a record high. Even if the daily limit was opened at noon, it finally closed up at 1326 yuan/ton. This is more than 20% higher than 1088 yuan/ton at the end of April. On the same day, the main contract of Singapore iron ore index futures rose by over 9% in the day, breaking through US$ 220/ton, also hitting a record high. In addition to iron ore, today's rebar main contract has a daily limit, closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 5.99%; Hot coil daily limit, closing at 6335 yuan/ton, up 5.99%. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, the single-day increase of third-grade rebar reached 389 yuan/ton, and the single-day increase of hot rolled coil was 369 yuan/ton. An industry insider, who asked not to be named, told the interface journalist that both iron ore and steel have broken away from the fundamentals. It is not the short-term tough demand and tight supply, but the frenzied outbreak of market sentiment. "All want to be safe and earn the last penny. The current price is supported by emotions. " This person thinks. Wang Jing of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center pointed out that the current market presents the top characteristics, with steel prices and mineral prices rising cyclically, while the supply side unilaterally rises sharply regardless of whether the downstream undertakes or not, and the downstream makes tentative purchases. At this stage, fundamental factors have partially failed, emotional factors dominate market behavior, and market trends are difficult to predict. Zhongtai Securities said that today's surge in iron ore prices is a speculative impulse triggered by China-Australia relations in the context of global demand recovery and ample liquidity. Zhongtai Securities analyzed that China should not actively reduce the import of Australian mines, but gradually reduce the import dependence of a single country through long-term measures, such as accelerating the development of iron ore in other countries; Australian mining enterprises should keep full production and full sales from the perspective of competition and profit maximization.
However, from the iron ore call option market, the market still holds a strong expectation for iron ore to rise. Iron ore call options soared today. Among them, in June, the call option with the exercise price of 1,300 yuan/ton surged nearly five times in a single day, from the highest in 23 yuan at the opening to 108 yuan, and finally closed at 99.8 yuan. Compared with the lowest 0.3 yuan in the session on May 6th, it has soared more than 300 times. The so-called call option refers to the right of the contract holder, that is, the buyer, to buy a specific number of specific trading objects from the opponent at the agreed price. Once the price of commodities or assets rises, you can exercise call options, buy futures contracts at a lower strike price, and then sell futures contracts at a higher price according to the rising price for profit. According to ASDOCK Financial News, Vivek Dhar, a commodity analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said that the industry is very hot at present, and when China's steel demand will ease will be the biggest question this year, and the supply is difficult to meet the strong demand to a large extent. "With the recent sharp rise in steel prices, the profits of steel mills have continued to expand, and the profits have exceeded 1000 yuan/ton. Under this circumstance, there is also a reasonable logic to pull iron ore to continue to rise, "the above-mentioned industry insiders told the interface news." It coincides with the news of China-Australia relations, and iron ore is rising. " Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the profit elasticity of steel was mainly driven by the shortage of production capacity, and the limited production in Tangshan and Handan affected the supply by about 5%, which led to the bottleneck of smelting and further promoted the profit per ton of steel to rise sharply. The price of iron ore does not affect the shortage of steel, so Sino-Australian relations have a neutral impact on steel. After engaging in futures performance, the rise of raw materials is basically completely transmitted by the rise of steel prices. The above-mentioned insiders believe that if there is decisive news that iron ore prices can be suppressed, the high probability is policy intervention. He said that a few days ago, policies such as steel export tax rebate have been implemented, and the market thinks that it is difficult to release a big bad signal about commodities in the short term, so the feeling of losing scruples broke out. "However, such a large increase since May is bound to attract attention. The greater the magnitude, the greater the possibility of policy intervention. " The source said.
