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Apr 28, 2020

The Current Epidemic Has Little Impact On Global Iron Ore Supply

  According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, from January to February, China imported 107 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a slight increase of 850000 tons on a year-on-year basis; China imported 36.07 million tons of iron ore from Brazil, a decrease of 5.58 million tons on a year-on-year basis. Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia in ~2 January has not yet spread worldwide, the iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil may reflect the impact of the epidemic on iron ore supply since March. According to the data released by my steel network, in March, the iron ore development and transportation volume in Australia and Brazil was 82.383 million tons, an increase of about 20% over the shipment volume of 69.058 million tons in March 2019. In the first week of April, the iron ore development volume in Australia and Brazil was 22.98 million tons, and in the second week, it was 19.806 million tons, higher than 16.64 million tons and 18.859 million tons respectively in the same period of 2019. Although there are also special factors in 2019, in terms of actual quantity, the impact of the epidemic on the iron ore supply since March is not significant.

  As the overseas epidemic continues to spread, the measures taken by local governments or enterprises themselves to control the epidemic will directly determine the follow-up production and supply of iron ore.

  According to the previous news, on April 8, Vale extended the maintenance period of the voisey's Bay mining area in Labrador, Canada, for no more than three months. The long port plant (lhpp) will continue to operate and will produce nickel and cobalt at expected levels from stockpiled concentrates. On March 23, the company decided to suspend the operation of Malaysian Logistics Center (trmt) from March 24, which is expected to have no impact on the production and sales volume of the whole year 2020, but may have an impact on the sales volume of the first quarter of about 500000 tons.

  Novel coronavirus pneumonia was announced in March 24th as part of actions taken by Quebec provincial governors and South African presidents to curb the spread of the new crown pneumonia. In South Africa's Richards Bay mine (RBM), Rio Tinto will cut production according to government orders, and all mining operations in the Richards Bay mine will be suspended for 21 days from 24:00 on March 26. According to the latest news 21 days after the expiration of the suspension on April 15, Richards mining area may be shut down for another two weeks. At the same time, Rio Tinto also postponed the resumption of construction of zulti south project. The Quebec government has identified industrial complexes, including aluminium and mining, as essential industries, and Rio Tinto is trying to minimise its business activities in the region.

  FMG said on March 23 that the state government of Western Australia will implement strict border control to prevent the spread of the epidemic, and implement 14 days of isolation observation for all personnel entering Western Australia. The mining and operation of FMG in Pilbara mine will continue, and the iron ore transportation in Port Hedland will continue. At present, FMG will maintain its annual production target.


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