1. In terms of supply, there is uncertainty about the proportion of steel mills to resume production in September, and it will take time to verify. In the later period, as the output of steel mills continues to increase, industry losses will lead to a slowdown in the release of production capacity, and there are still many bottlenecks in supply. Due to the difficulty in improving short-term demand, the contradiction between supply and demand may continue to be highlighted in September and even in the second half of the year.
2. In terms of funds, the continuous interest rate cuts by the central bank have made the liquidity in the financial system very abundant, M2 has maintained a reasonable growth, and the local debt carry-over limit and the annual special debt limit have guaranteed the future supply of funds, and the expectation is significantly improved. However, there are also big coffees who said that this year, the overall payment of construction sites is slow, and the number of construction projects is less than in previous years. The relevant favorable policies have not led to signs of easing the return of project funds, and the company still maintains a relatively conservative and stable business strategy.
3. In terms of expectations and operations, with the end of the high temperature in September, the market demand will improve to a certain extent, but the real estate is still not optimistic, and the improvement in demand is limited; the inventory has been in a healthy state after the previous destocking, but with the resumption of production The rhythm is accelerating, and it may face the pressure of accumulating stockpiles; the improvement of the market conditions can only be achieved when the supply and demand recover simultaneously, and the market outlook remains cautious. Under the expectation of another sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, steel prices are facing upward pressure. When the industry is down in a big cycle, it is necessary to pay attention to the mismatch in the short cycle, which is more suitable for term band operations.
