Rebar: On March 30th, the average price of 20mm grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across China was 3336 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the short term, stable cost support and declining inventory provide a floor, but a full recovery in spot demand will take time. Merchants are focusing on stabilizing prices and accelerating inventory reduction, lacking the momentum for a significant price increase. Therefore, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices will continue to trend upward on March 31st.
Hot-rolled coil: On March 30th, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil and gas supply shortages have triggered a market substitution effect for coal, driving up the prices of steelmaking raw materials such as coke and ferroalloys, continuing to support costs. On the demand side, downstream markets are resuming work and production, and terminal demand for steel continues to recover, with inventory decreasing month-on-month, while apparent demand for hot-rolled coil increased month-on-month. On the supply side, both long-process and short-process steel mills have recently resumed production, and steel supply is expected to increase further, which may pose some resistance to the upward movement of the futures market. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate mainly on March 31st.
Cold-rolled coil: On March 30th, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. According to feedback from some traders, their inventory has increased slightly. To reduce inventory, traders have been secretly lowering prices to accelerate sales. Coupled with downstream buyers' "buy high, sell low" mentality and less purchases over the weekend, overall market transactions were relatively good on the 30th. Regarding market sentiment, although the rise in futures prices boosted some market confidence, overall demand remained largely unchanged, and traders are mostly cautious and observing the market outlook. In summary, cold-rolled coil prices across the country are expected to fluctuate narrowly on March 31st.
Medium and Heavy Plates: On March 30th, the average price of 20mm ordinary plates in 24 major cities across China was 3417 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Demand in the northern market is gradually recovering, market trading activity has improved, and transactions are acceptable. Inventory in South China remains high, and demand is moderate. Regarding steel mills, the operating rate this week is expected to be the same as last week, with a slight increase in output. Currently, industries such as machinery manufacturing, construction machinery, and steel structures are accelerating their resumption of work, and there is active restocking for immediate needs; downstream demand awaits further release. Overall, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and the national price of medium and heavy plates is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend on March 31st.
