2017 foreign trade "report card" is about to debut. In the first 11 months of 2017, China's import and export of foreign trade increased by 15.6% over the same period of last year and increased by 12% as compared with the same period of last year. Ministry of Commerce spokesman peak said earlier, according to this speed, if no special circumstances are expected in 2017 China's import and export will once again exceed 4 trillion US dollars, foreign trade maintained a relatively fast growth. According to the insiders, with the steady global economic recovery and sustained "One Belt One Road" initiative, external demand will continue to expand. Both imports and exports will both grow in the first quarter of 2018, and the overall foreign trade situation is generally optimistic.
Export picked up firmly
Spring plumbing duck prophet. At the beginning of 2018, many foreign trade enterprises increased their orders significantly.
Wang Jun, founder of Shanghai Jun too Enterprise Management Co., told China Securities Journal reporter, despite entering the off-season orders, but the company's recent survey of hundreds of enterprises point of view, more than 70% of export-oriented enterprises in the first quarter orders higher than last year Same period. Among them, the consumer electronics and automotive companies orders particularly strong. Most surveyed companies believe that the opportunities for foreign trade in 2018 are greater than in previous years. On the one hand, the signs of global economic recovery were obvious. In particular, the orders picked up in the European and American markets showed a larger rebound. On the other hand, the "Belt and Road Initiative" continued to be promoted, driving some domestic enterprises to export.
The Canton Fair, hailed as the "barometer of foreign trade," also showed signs of "warm spring" in foreign trade in 2018. According to the statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, merchants and transactions of the Canton Fair in the fall of 2017 both increased.
Xie Ya Xuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, said in an interview with China Securities Journal that the overall export situation in 2018 is expected to be better overall. From a cyclical point of view, Europe and the United States and emerging markets are showing a recovery trend, the global economy on the recovery track. Second, since 2016, the household sector and enterprises in Europe and the United States have started to increase their leverage. At present, the trend of the private sector in the developed countries is on the rise. The rebound in leverage of the private sector in developed countries indicates that overseas demand is expected to rebound systematically. China's export rebound basis is firmer and growth is expected to have a longer duration. This is an important continuous improvement factor for boosting the demand for our products. In addition, emerging market economies such as Brazil, Argentina and Russia have shown signs of improvement. Their demand for our products is also boosting the export situation in China. China's export growth is expected to be higher in 2018 than in 2017.
Expand the import signal positive
The recently held Work Conference of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China made arrangements for the foreign trade work in 2018 to implement a positive import policy while promoting exports and promote the trade balance in our country.
The industry believes that the recent announcement of the reduction of import tariffs has released a positive signal of expanding imports. The MOF recently said that as of December 1, 2017, tariffs on some consumer products will be reduced by a provisional tax rate. As of January 1, 2018, some tariff adjustments will be made to other import and export duties.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the Institute of International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told China Securities Journal in an interview that lowering import tariffs is an icing on the cake for promoting the development of import trade. However, the final result depends on whether China's economy can develop smoothly and this Whether the steady development can produce spillover effects. With regard to whether China's economy can develop smoothly, the World Bank's continuous forecast of China's economic growth in 2018 has shown the judgment of some international agencies. It is better to do more with this spillage than with spillover effects. At least the import expo will be held by China by the end of 2018, which means "doing more" on imports. As there are no major changes in fundamentals, the growth rate of imports in 2018 may still continue its steady growth since the second half of 2017.
Chen Fengying, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that import in 2017 showed a rapid growth trend and the growth rate of imports was even higher than that of exports, indicating the strong domestic demand in China. Looking forward to 2018, in addition to domestic demand is expected to continue to expand, the catalyst of a series of policy effects will also lead to annual import growth.
Create a new advantage of foreign trade
To promote China's transition from a big trading nation to a powerful trading power is the main goal of China's foreign trade in the coming years. Analysts believe that to achieve this goal, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of the momentum of foreign trade development and create new advantages in foreign trade.
Baiming said that if there is no major breakthrough in quality, service, technology, brand, standards and other aspects without building up a new edge in foreign trade, the improvement in China's foreign trade will eventually become nothing short of a flash in the pan. Then, not to mention that the goal of a trading power can not be achieved and even the status of a trading power can not be guaranteed. From the perspective of the development of foreign trade in 2018, our country has not done a one-size-fits-all over the new advantages in enhancing foreign trade competition. Rather, it is more prominent on export trade to enhance the export quality and added value because other competitive advantages over the brand, technology and service The long process of cultivation to enhance the quality of exports and added value can be said to do at least. Importance of import trade has also been significantly strengthened, moving in the direction of trade balance. Since the trade balance is to be pursued in 2018, the impetus for the import and export trade will have to be balanced. In other words, to promote the development of import trade to self-pressure, and cut some of the import tariffs on products is easy to produce immediate results.
Bailing said that increasing efforts to change the mode of foreign trade development can explore and cultivate a new trade model of trade from a pilot area for free trade and trade, expand the opening up of the service industry, promote the implementation of the strategy of a free trade zone and optimize the opening layout. Beijing and Tianjin The integration of Hebei, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Tai Wan District of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macau, the strategy of going out to find more force points to ensure the development of foreign trade to a new level.
Fostering new growth points of foreign trade is conducive to the transformation of the mode of foreign trade development. The peak shows that the rapid growth of new formats such as cross-border e-commerce and market procurement and trade has become a new growth point for foreign trade. In the first half of 2017, the size of China's cross-border e-commerce transactions was 3.6 trillion yuan, up 30.7%. Among them, the scale of export cross-border e-commerce transactions 2.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.5%; import trans-border electricity trading size of 864.4 billion yuan, an increase of 66.3%.
In order to promote this new format of cross-border e-commerce development, the State Council decided to extend the policy of monitoring the transitional period of cross-border e-commerce retail imports to one year from the end of 2018, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Pingtan and other 10 pilot cities (regions) e-commerce retail imports of goods temporarily in accordance with the regulation of personal effects. The peak said that the extension of the transition period fully reflects the state's new industry and new model of "inclusive and cautious" regulatory philosophy, to maintain the continuity of existing policies and stabilize the industry expectations.
