Into 2018, the steel market demand is more prominent weakness in the spot price is also steadily lower.
As of January 9, the main contract period 1805 contract closed at 3819 yuan / ton, basically the same as a month ago. The overall trend is not out of the narrow range pattern.
Since the end of 2015, the spiral has been steadily withdrawn and has been steadily increasing. The price has more than doubled. However, since the beginning of August last year, the upward spiral has shown signs of stabilization and the price volatility has narrowed significantly in the recent month.
Spot market performance is weaker than the futures. January 9, in Shanghai, for example, the average HRB40012mm rebar in the region reported 4070 yuan / ton, while a month ago the price was 4960 yuan / ton. Shanghai Iron and Steel "My Steel Network" pointed out that due to the existence of winter stock market sentiment and demand expectations, the market will still be too willing to ship, if the delay in the transaction can not be better, the spot price will still have room for exploration.
Analysts believe that making this round of steel prices there are many factors stagflation, demand is one of the major elements.
Geng Tianwen, a building materials analyst at "My Steel Network," said that the overall steel mills' sales volume has been increasing recently. The performance of the steel mills is shrinking for the direct supply, while the output of rebar is increasing. The contraction of seasonal demand is still the most important factor that affects sales. The pressure on the factory warehouse has increased while the manufacturers have accelerated the transfer of resources.
"Northern snowfall, rainfall in the south, downstream demand continues to weaken, the market downturn, combined with the approaching Spring Festival, the financial pressure gradually increased, business sentiment turned negative, operating mostly for the reduction of funds withdrawn from circulation." She pointed out.
Cao Gangyong, analyst for hot and cold steel at "My Steel Network," claimed that demand in East China is relatively weak in the hot and cold spot markets, with a relatively poor demand in North China and South China.
"The demand for the thread has been hit low, and with the snow last week, the only remaining demand was directly buried, while the steel mills were at higher prices and the short-term WinterPort policy was less attractive to the market. Cao Jian-Yong also pointed out that the convergence of supply and demand of coils in the thread. "From a psychological point of view, the market bearish sentiment worse, smashing prices and accelerated sales mainstream, the market price or will continue downward."
Into December, the domestic steel market demand highlights the off-season features, the northern snow is to slow down the transport, the terminal procurement action has also been winter "frozen." After the market gradually returns to fundamentals, the price is also weaker due to the sluggish demand and the in-depth off-season, but the market is still not seeing any signs of improvement in the near future.
However, one thing to point out is that the steel price adjustment can give Winterfeather a certain chance.
Analysts believe that if steel prices remain weak or continue to decline, traders may start the hoarding mode, while steel mills or to increase production to reduce the price drop caused by the loss. Wang Jingjing, a plate analyst at "My Steel Network," said that steel mills will either consider the price side by side or change the price by volume.
