Iron Ore Supply Pressure Persists

Australian miners are continuing their end-of-fiscal-year push to boost volumes, Simandou's production ramp-up is exceeding expectations, and global iron ore shipments remain at high levels; total global shipments reached 34.677 million tonnes for the week of June 15–21-an increase of 1.208 million tonnes week-on-week and the second-highest level for this period in history. Port inventories have accumulated for four consecutive weeks; stocks of imported iron ore across 47 monitored ports rose by 206,600 tonnes to 173.1126 million tonnes, setting a new record high for this time of year, indicating that the loose supply landscape for iron ore is unlikely to change. Analyst Insight: Crude oil prices have plummeted, driving down ocean freight rates and iron ore transport costs; meanwhile, shipment volumes remain high, intensifying supply pressure from port inventories. Concurrently, a pullback in steel spot prices is further squeezing steelmakers' profit margins, leading to expectations of production halts for maintenance. Although the market saw a technical rebound following a sharp drop, significant resistance remains overhead, and the cost support for iron ore has weakened-factors that are bearish for steel prices.