I. Policy Background: Four Phases of Evolution from "Counter-Cyclical Adjustment" to "Strategic Proactive Management"

China's implementation of export license management on steel products is not unprecedented. Its policy evolution clearly demonstrates a spiral trajectory of "implementation-cancellation-optimization-re-implementation," with each policy shift reflecting the macroeconomic logic and industrial strategic considerations of its specific era.

Evolution of Policy Logic: The historical trajectory reveals that steel export license management has evolved from an early counter-cyclical adjustment tool (curbing exports during overheated periods, relaxing controls during economic downturns) into a strategic proactive management instrument under the new development paradigm. This re-implementation carries multifaceted contemporary significance-encompassing industrial upgrading, resource security, the "Dual Carbon" strategy, and the restructuring of trade order-marking a new chapter in China's steel industry governance.

II. Key Points of the 2025 Announcement No. 79

(I) Coverage Scope: Precise Full-Industry-Chain Coverage

The 268 HS codes brought under management exhibit a distinct characteristic of "full-chain coverage from raw materials to finished products, with emphasis on key varieties":

Raw Materials & Primary Products (Codes 1–25): Non-alloy pig iron, sponge iron, recycled steel raw materials, steel scrap, iron powder, etc., focusing on resource security and circular utilization;

Steel Billets (Codes 26–32): Rectangular cross-section billets, continuous casting slabs, etc., curbing the surge in low value-added semi-finished product exports;

Hot-Rolled (Codes 33–56) and Cold-Rolled Products (Codes 57–71): Various specifications of plate products, controlling the export scale of high energy-consuming products;

Coated Products (Codes 72–78): Tin-plated, galvanized, and lead-plated sheets, addressing trade frictions and stabilizing export order;

Section Steel & Steel Pipes (Codes 113–121, 260–268): H-beams, high-temperature pressure-bearing seamless pipes, etc., preserving export channels for high-end products.

(II) Policy Highlights

Precise Management Rather Than Comprehensive Control: The managed codes account for approximately 30% of all steel-related HS codes, reflecting a "focusing on priorities while releasing minor varieties, controlling volume while enhancing quality" approach to targeted regulation;

Clear Structural Guidance Intent: The policy both suppresses the export of low value-added products such as billets and preserves channels for high-end products, guiding the export structure to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement."

III. Market Changes in the Past Six Months: Deep Adjustments Across Five Dimensions

Since the announcement on December 12, 2025, the policy effects have rapidly materialized in both domestic and international markets, manifesting primarily in the following structural changes:

Sharp Volume Contraction: In January 2026, steel exports decreased by approximately 45%–55% month-on-month compared to December 2025. Some small and medium-sized traders were forced to suspend operations due to delays in license applications;

Intensified Structural Divergence: Exports of billets and primary products approached zero; coated products suffered the greatest impact; high-end steel products (such as high-temperature pressure-bearing seamless pipes and specialty steel) maintained relatively stable exports;

License Application Bottleneck: Concentrated applications led to review backlogs in certain regions. The Ministry of Commerce urgently optimized systems and required local commercial authorities to simplify procedures and accelerate reviews.

"Going Global" as a New Trend: To circumvent license management, competitive steel enterprises have accelerated capacity cooperation projects in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, upgrading China's steel "going global" model from product export to "capacity + technology + standards" export.

IV. Long-Term Impact: Reshaping the Future of China's Steel Industry Across Three Dimensions

Short Term (within 1 year): Policy implementation takes effect, export scale returns to reasonable levels, and domestic supply-demand balance is achieved;

Medium Term (2–3 years): Industry concentration rises, green and low-carbon transformation accelerates, and the industrial chain extends toward high-end segments;

Long Term (3–5 years): The pattern of transformation from "steel giant" to "steel power" is fundamentally established, and China will play a greater role in global steel governance.

20 Years Export Experience ASTM/EN/JIS Standard Seamless & Welded Steel Pipe Manufacturer