In October, the domestic market was still in the peak season of steel demand, steel production remained at a high level, and steel prices remained generally stable. In the later period, as the weather turns cold and the demand intensity weakens, the steel price will fluctuate.
1. The steel prices in the domestic market are generally stable.
At the end of October, the steel company CSPI China steel price index was 121.72 points, up 0.08 points, or 0.07%, up 5.76 points, or 4.97%, and down 0.08 points, or 0.07%.
1. Long product prices continue to rise and plate prices continue to fall
At the end of October, the CSPI long product index was 131.93 points, up 2.27 points, or 1.75%. The CSPI sheet index was 114.59 points, down 1.79 points, or 1.54%. Compared with the same period of last year, the long product index rose by 11.83 points. The increase was 9.85%; the plate index rose by 1.06 points, an increase of 0.93%.
2. Changes in the prices of major steel products
At the end of October, among the eight major steel products monitored by the Iron and Steel Association, the prices of high-line and steel bars continued to rise, rising by RMB 115/ton and RMB 116/ton respectively from the previous month; the price of angle steel rose from the previous month and increased by RMB 20/ton from the previous month; Prices of plates, hot rolled coils, cold rolled sheets and galvanized sheets continued to decline, down by RMB 75/ton, RMB 94/ton, RMB 48/ton and RMB 28/ton respectively; the price of hot rolled seamless steel tubes was up by Turning down, the chain fell by 22 yuan / ton.
3. Changes in steel price index in each week
In October, the CSPI domestic steel price composite index fluctuated slightly. Among them, the second week fell, and the third and fourth weeks rose. In November, the price dropped slightly in the first week, and the price dropped in the second and third weeks.
4. Changes in steel prices in major regional markets
According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, in October, CSPI nationwide six regional market price index has risen and fallen. Among them: the East China region continued to rise, up 0.45% from the previous month; the price indices in the Central South, Southwest China and Northwest China increased from 0.48% to 0.78% and 0.81% from the previous month; the Northeast region fell from the rise to the decline, down 1.53% from the previous month. The price index in North China continued to decline, down 0.17% from the previous month.
Second, the analysis of the changes in steel prices in the domestic market
In October, the steel industry continued to grow, and steel demand remained stable. Steel production maintained a high level, the market supply and demand were basically balanced, steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall situation was relatively stable.
1. Mainly use steel industry to maintain growth, steel demand is generally stable
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January-September. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points from January to September; national real estate development investment increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from January to September. Among them, the newly-built housing area increased by 16.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1%. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in September. Among them, the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.8%, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.1%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries increased by 5.0%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.8%, computers, communications and other electronic equipment. Manufacturing grew by 14.6%, while electricity, heat production and supply grew by 5.9%. From the overall situation, fixed assets and real estate investment, the main steel industry maintained growth, and steel demand remained stable.
2. The daily output of crude steel decreased, and the production capacity remained at a high level.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the national production of pig iron, crude steel and steel (including recycled materials) were 67.74 million tons, 82.55 million tons and 98.02 million tons, respectively, up 7.3%, 9.1% and 11.5% year-on-year. They increased by 2.9, 1.6 and 1.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month; the national average daily crude steel output was 2,632,900 tons, a decrease of 32,100 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.2%. Although the crude steel Nissan has declined slightly, it is still the third highest level in history; the country exports 5.5 million tons of steel, 1.14 million tons of imported steel, and the net export steel is equivalent to 4.54 million tons of crude steel, down 8.1% from the previous month; In October, the average daily supply of crude steel in the domestic market was 2.5163 million tons, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous month and an increase of 9.1% year-on-year. Although the daily output of crude steel fell from the previous month, the release of capacity was still relatively fast.
3. The prices of raw materials have risen, and the price of imported ore has increased.
According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, the prices of domestic iron concentrates and imported iron ore continued to rise at the end of October, up 3.39% and 9.37% respectively, an increase of 1.19 and 5.74 percentage points respectively from the previous month; coking coal and metallurgical coke The price rose from the downside, with an increase of 2.12% and 1.93% respectively; the scrap price continued to rise, up 1.12%, and the increase was narrowed by 1.56 percentage points from the previous month. From the year-on-year situation, the price of imported ore increased by 27.54%, the price of domestic iron concentrate increased by 10.91%, the price of coking coal increased by 7.58%, the price of metallurgical coke and scrap increased by 30.55% and 46.83%, respectively, and the overall price remained at a high level.
3. Steel prices in the international market continued to decline, and the decline was slightly narrowed.
In October, the CRU International Steel Composite Price Index was 188.5 points, down 2.9 points month-on-month, or 1.5%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Compared with the same period of last year, it rose by 13.0 points, or 7.4%.
1. Long and plate prices continue to decline, and the plate thickness is higher than that of long products.
In October, the CRU long product index was 194.0 points, a decrease of 0.2 points from the previous month, a decrease of 0.1%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; the CRU sheet index was 185.8 points, a decrease of 4.3 points from the previous month, a decrease of 2.3% compared with the previous month. The increase of 0.5 percentage points was 2.2 percentage points higher than that of long products. Compared with the same period of last year, the CRU long product index increased by 4.1 points, or 2.2%; the CRU plate index rose by 17.5 points, an increase of 10.4%.
2. North America and Asia continue to decline, and Europe will rise and fall.
(1) North American market
In October, the CRU North American steel price index was 211.8 points, a decrease of 5.6 points from the previous month, a decrease of 2.6%, and the chain-on-quarter decline was 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. In October, the US manufacturing PMI was 57.7%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, including: the new order index fell by 4.4 percentage points, and the customer inventory index rose by 2.8 percentage points. At the end of October, the US crude steel capacity utilization rate was 81.0%, up 1.8 points from the previous month. Percentage points. The price of long products in the Midwest of the United States remained stable this month, and the price of plate was up and down. The prices of hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils and hot dip galvanized sheets continued to decline, and the decline was narrowed.
(2) European market
In October, the CRU European steel price index was 195.6 points, a decrease of 1.3 points from the previous month, a decrease of 0.7%. In October, the manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone was 52.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The German manufacturing PMI was 52.2%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the French manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Spanish manufacturing PMI was 51.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; and the Italian manufacturing PMI was 49.2%. The chain fell by 0.8 percentage points. The price of steel in the German market rose from the previous month, and the prices of small materials continued to decline. The prices of steel bars, wire rods, plate, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and hot dip galvanized sheet were all down.
(3) Asian market
In October, the CRU Asian steel price index was 170.9 points, down 2.2 points from the previous month, a decrease of 1.3%, and the decline was narrowed by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In October, Japan's manufacturing PMI was 52.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; South Korea's manufacturing PMI was 51.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of steel bars and plate in the Far East market remained stable this month, while prices of other varieties continued to decline, but the declines in the chain were narrower than last month.
Fourth, the analysis of the price trend of the steel market in the later period
As the weather turns cold, the market gradually enters the off-season of demand. As steel production remains at a high level, steel prices will fluctuate.
1. The country's steady growth policy is continuously introduced, and steel demand is expected to remain stable.
Since the beginning of this year, the international and domestic situations have undergone extensive and profound changes, and China's economic operations are facing certain downward pressure. In order to maintain a stable economic operation, the state has issued a series of "steady growth" policy measures. From the operation of the first 10 months, the main indicators of the national economy have remained within a reasonable range, and continue to maintain a generally stable, stable and progressive development trend. The fundamentals of the stable operation of the macro economy in the later period will not change much. The state has increased its support for private enterprises through targeted grading, increasing refinancing and rediscounting quotas, setting up a special fund for pledge of equity pledges, expanding the scale of tax reduction, and strengthening export tax rebates, and “compensating for short-board” infrastructure construction. And manufacturing investment is also expected to continue to rise. Overall, steel demand remained stable.
2. The market gradually enters the off-season of demand, and steel prices are facing downward pressure.
As the weather turned cold, the domestic market gradually entered the low season of demand, and the demand for steel products declined. In November, steel prices have shown a downward trend. Steel mills have increased smelting strength and production efficiency, and steel production capacity has remained at a high level. Due to Sino-US trade friction, steel exports have been declining, and the role of diverting domestic resources has also weakened. Overall, steel prices are facing downward pressure in the later period, but due to rising raw material prices, steel prices are unlikely to fall sharply.
3. Steel stocks fell, and the market was expected to decline in the later period.
According to statistics, at the end of October, the steel social stocks were 9.81 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons, down 2.03%; compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 1.87 million tons, an increase of 23.50%; compared with the same period of last year, a decrease of 180,000 tons, a decrease of 1.85 %. As the market gradually entered the low season of demand, steel inventories fell, indicating that the market is expected to decline.
The main issues that need to be addressed in the later market:
First, steel production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is high. In October, the national average daily output of crude steel reached 2.623 million tons, although it was down by 1.19% from the previous month, it was still the third highest level in history. Maintaining high levels of steel production is not conducive to maintaining a balance between market supply and demand. In the case of the arrival of the off-season demand, iron and steel enterprises should carefully analyze changes in market demand, actively play the role of stabilizers, and maintain stable operation of the market.
Second, the price trend of iron ore and steel deviates, squeezing the profit margin of steel companies. In November, the CSPI steel price composite index fell for three consecutive weeks, falling to 116.74 points on November 16, down 4.03% from the end of September. In the same period, CIOPI imported iron ore prices rose to 74.22 US dollars / ton, up 9.34% from the end of September. The deviation of imported iron ore and steel prices will inevitably squeeze the profit margin of steel companies, and cost reduction and efficiency should still be the focus of work.
Third, the export of steel products has decreased from the previous month, and the impact of Sino-US trade friction cannot be ignored. In October, the national steel export volume was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 7.6%. Iron and steel enterprises should pay close attention to Sino-US trade frictions, assess the impact of US trade protection measures on China's steel industry and downstream steel industry, take the initiative to adjust product structure and stabilize the domestic market.
