Review Of The Steel Market in The Third Quarter

Looking back at the steel market in the third quarter, the overall trend was to decline first and then rise. The futures price fell from a high of 3697 in early July to a low of 2988 in early September. In just two months, the market mentality was repeatedly frustrated by the decline of nearly 20%. The weak fundamentals and negative emotional feedback caused the steel market to fall again and again. Just when everyone was wondering whether the steel market crash in 2015 would be repeated, a heavy news came. The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on September 18, 2024, local time, lowering the federal interest rate target range by 50 basis points. This was the first rate cut since March 2020, and it also marked the transition from a monetary policy tightening cycle to an easing cycle. Based on the Fed's rate cut, my country has launched a series of policy "combination punches", and market sentiment has been rising all the way. Futures have also rarely reached the daily limit (high point 3551). So far, the third quarter can be regarded as a good ending. However, the performance at the beginning of the fourth quarter is not optimistic. Next, the author will analyze the trend of the steel market in the fourth quarter from the aspects of raw materials, steel inventory, and transactions.