As of August 30, the August steel market showed a volatile and weak operating trend. The composite steel price index fell by 164 points, the thread and wire rod fell by 168 and 170 points respectively, and the medium plate, hot rolled and cold rolled steel fell by 165, respectively. At 227 and 95 points, construction materials were weaker than plates, cold-rolled materials were stronger than coiled snails, and special steels rose and fell; the average steel composite index still rose by 59 points. The price of 62% of Australian ore fell by US$24, the scrap price index fell by 42 points, and the coke price index rose by 684 points. Although the steel market in August was basically in line with expectations, there were also places that exceeded expectations:
One is that the understanding of the "corrective campaign-style carbon reduction" mentioned in the Politburo meeting on July 30 is beyond the scope. Unexpectedly, the meeting at that point in time had this wording, and some steel and investors did not expect it to be aligned with the correction of the steel industry's production restriction. As a result, the thread futures of the 2201 contract on August 1st fell by 333 points. Spot prices also fell sharply;
Second, the rebound in the price of iron ore deviated from the performance of fundamentals more than expected, and the price increase of coking coal and coke was also beyond imagination;
Third, the intensity of the long-short information game exceeded expectations. It was once widely rumored that there would be false news about the imposing of export tariffs on steel products, and it was even reported that related policies were announced on August 25 and implemented in September. As long as someone spreads various policy news, someone pays attention to it, someone believes it, and some people guard against possible risks. Therefore, the hot rolling that you have seen has the largest decline among several major varieties; there are also false news that the export of Australian iron ore will be subject to additional tariffs and that India’s iron ore cannot be exported, leading to the August 24 iron ore futures. The price of the 2201 contract rebounded sharply by 6.17%.
Such "information" and opinions are too numerous to list, and this has also caused the market in August this year to be tortuous for all parties. In August, the comprehensive steel price index had 22 trading days, 12 days of decline, 10 days of rise, 8 directional changes occurred, maintaining the same direction for the shortest 2 days, a total of 5 times, the longest continuous decline was only 5 days, continuous The longest rise time is only 4 days, and August is likely to be the most frequent, fastest, and most uncertain month in history. For the Iron Man, it was a very helpless month. Many people paid unnecessary transaction costs for all kinds of true and false "information" and opinions. Fortunately, August 2021 has become a thing of the past. I hope you will have good luck in September. Come.
