From the short-term perspective, the current round of steel price increases lasted for nearly 3 months, the medium-term price increase has been for a year, and the long-term cycle is the watershed that appeared in 2016. As of the moment, the market sentiment is divided into two factions. One is that the rebar is continuously bullish and believes that the rebar can rise to 6000 yuan/ton, and the other is pessimistic that the current price has reached a new high for more than a decade, which is already bearable for the downstream. Very stressful. However, I personally think that there is another one, that is, the "May Day" holiday began last year to 5 days. On the one hand, the number of travelers will increase significantly, and market traders will also do the same. The transaction time in May will become shorter, and the other One aspect is whether the procurement and sales before and after the holidays will be more concentrated than before.
As we all know, due to the impact of the epidemic on social inventories reaching a new high in 2020, and the rate of digestion is very fast, so this year's social inventories are also at a medium-to-high level. According to the current decline rate of about 1 million tons per week, it will take 4-6 weeks. Reached a staged low inventory level, and then entered a shock range. However, the five-day "May Day" holiday seems to postpone this phased low. Because for our current social situation, 5 days means being able to travel, and another two days is the time for the National Day holiday, so this year's tourism industry will be more popular during this period than in previous years. On the other hand, the market transaction time is short, which will greatly reduce the decline of steel social stocks, which will increase market confidence in some fears of heights. However, I personally think that we need to wait until the week after the holiday to see the inventory digestion rate before we can fully judge its trend.
