The recent market is full of winter sound storage, the author also conducted a related study on this issue. When traders have optimistic expectations about the post-holiday market, winter warehousing will be carried out at an appropriate price. This action is directly reflected in changes in inventories.
Compared with previous years, the accumulated inventory of winter inventory in 2017 is late. As can be seen from the two figures below, whether it be steel mills or social stocks, the accumulated time is from mid-December to the latest one month later than in previous years , Mainly due to the concentrated rush-hour of real estate and infrastructural projects in November (as evidenced by the growth of newly-started real estate in November), the demand has risen sharply, the supply is subject to environmental restrictions, and the inventory of rebar has undergone a round of rapid decline , The trend of decline in inventories has been extended to early December, inventories hit a record low over the years, the market generally out of stock, broken specifications phenomenon. On the 5th of December, Mysteel rebar price index reached 4915.66 yuan / ton, the highest point for the entire year, with the price in most regions across the country reaching over 5,000 yuan / ton. As the weather is getting colder, snowfalls have occurred in many areas, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, and traders and downstream terminals are reluctant to pick up the prices when the price is high. The rebar price has been rapidly declining process.
From the inventory of steel mills and social stockpiles, we can also see that in the initial stage of price drop, the inventories of steel mills accumulated significantly higher than the cumulative amount of social stockpiles, reflecting the poor willingness of traders to pick up goods. However, The case of active shipping, return of funds based, then the price drop is no doubt. The cumulative amount of real social inventories is higher than the cumulative amount of inventories of steel mills occurred after New Year's Day. On January 5, our statistical social stock weekly increased by 325,000 tons, while the steel mills accumulated 70,000 tons, but its New Year's Day holiday , Trading days to reduce and affected by the weather, the downstream demand is weak, a large accumulation of social stock does not effectively reflect the traders in the active stockpile, and the price is still above 4000, the price did not stop falling, the apparent accumulation of social stock Can be regarded as affected by the demand on the one hand, on the one hand the price did reach the psychological price of some traders, began exploratory replenishment.
The real winter storage time is in the recent week, January 19, Mysteel statistical social weekly inventory increased by 277,000 tons, while the steel mills reduced by 232,000 tons, the total inventory of only 45,000 tons accumulated, which accumulated in winter stocks Has never occurred since the phenomenon, which means that the real beginning of winter storage. Here we can not help but ask why winter storage happen to happen at this point in time? I personally think that from the two dimensions of price and time to analyze.
First look at the price, January 15, the Shanghai rebar prices have dropped to 3760 yuan / ton relatively low, some steel mills and even sold to lower traders or downstream, but need to be aware that the price range is close EAF steelmaking costs, and the futures disk, the rebar 05 contract between 3700-3800 there is also strong support in the 3700-3800 a lot of buying intervention, which gives the market a signal released, the spot The price at 3700-3800 may be the bottom.
Time, from the Spring Festival there are 2-3 weeks of trading time, traders and downstream order transportation will take time, if the Winter Lake and then delayed, operational time may be insufficient.
Winter storage fully opened, postganglionic steel prices on schedule? At present, many views on the market are ubiquitous. The main logic is that the deadline for production is as of March 15, and after the production limit is over, the increment of supply will take a certain amount of time in production and transportation. However, Will gradually recover and the demand for environmental protection in the fourth quarter of 17 will also be released after the holiday. The mismatch in supply and demand will push up the steel price sharply. If by the time the price of steel soars, the purchase cost of the downstream industry will greatly increase. Under the circumstance of sharp fluctuations in steel prices in 2017, downstream purchases will be more time-savvy, so how to avoid the losses caused by rising steel prices after the holiday season? What? Many downstream has been in advance procurement, some of the demand began to release before the holiday, statistics from the Mysteel volume of building materials point of view, last week, the average daily volume of building materials was 187,000 tons, the weekly chain reached 36.9%, which is 2017 12 The highest level after the month, compared with the peak season turnover is not inferior, indicating that the downstream procurement is very positive, but the real demand is not much, its real intention is to store goods, although the downstream stockpile volume is still difficult to assess However, the demand for post-holiday savings will be more or less at the expense of postganglionic steel prices, and the latter should pay close attention to the situation of downstream purchases.
